A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

Temporal and spatial variations of PM2.5 organic and elemental carbon in Central India

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - This study describes spatiotemporal patterns from October 2015 to September 2016 for PM2.5 mass and carbon measurements in rural (Kosmarra), urban (Raipur),...     

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km² of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations’ resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.     

Losses from effluent taxes and quotas under uncertainty

Recent theoretical papers by Adar and Griffin (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.3, 178–188 (1976)), Fishelson (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.3, 189–197 (1976)), and Weitzman (Rev. Econ. Studies41, 477–491 (1974)) show that,different expected social losses arise from using effluent taxes and quotas as alternative control instruments when marginal control costs are uncertain. Key assumptions in these analyses are linear marginal cost and benefit functions and an additive error for the marginal cost function (to reflect uncertainty). In this paper, empirically derived nonlinear functions and more realistic multiplicative error terms are used to estimate expected control and damage costs and to identify (empirically) the mix of control instruments that minimizes expected losses.     

Influence of organic ley–arable management and afforestation in sandy loam to clay loam soils on fluxes of N2O and CH4 in Scotland

Assessment of the sustainability of alternatives to conventional uses of agricultural land, viz. organic systems and afforestation should include consideration of any effects on trace gas budgets. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) fluxes and controlling soil properties were measured in an organic ley–arable rotation in north-east Scotland on a sandy loam. N₂O fluxes were monitored in the ley and arable phases and in organic permanent grass (Lolium perenne) located nearby throughout the 3-year phase duration. Gas fluxes in woodland that had been converted from arable for 1 or 6 years were also measured in both north-east and south-east Scotland on sandy loam to clay loam soils. The climate is maritime and variable with annual rainfall between 800 and 900 mm. Within the organic rotation, differences in N₂O fluxes between the ley and arable phases were less marked than in conventional agriculture. Although this was mainly because grassland emissions were low, some losses from the arable component were also relatively high. Seasonal rainfall had a major influence on cumulative emissions of N₂O, including the first year after conversion from ley to arable. In the short term, changing land use from arable to woodland increased CH₄ oxidation rates and decreased N₂O emissions, though both these rates were also influenced by seasonal weather. Afforestation of agricultural land appears to be more beneficial to trace gas exchange than conversion to organic production.     

Seasonal and spatial variation of solvent extractable organic compounds in fine suspended particulate matter in Hong Kong

The results of a 12-month study of more than 100 solvent extractable organic compounds (SEOC) in particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 microm (PM2.5) collected at three air monitoring stations located at roadside, urban, and rural sites in Hong Kong are reported. The total yield of SEOC that accounts for approximately 8-18% of organic carbon (OC) determined by a thermal optical transmittance method was 125-2060 ng/m3, which included 14.6-128 ng/m3 resolved aliphatic hydrocarbons, 39.4-1380 ng/m3 unresolved complex mixtures, 0.6-17.2 ng/m3 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 41.6-520 ng/m3 fatty acids, and < 0.1-12.1 ng/m3 alkanols. Distinct seasonal variations (summer/winter differences) were observed with higher concentrations of the total and each class of SEOC in the winter and lower concentrations in the summer. Spatial variations are also obvious, with the roadside samples having the highest concentrations of SEOC and the rural samples having the lowest concentrations in all seasons. Characteristic ratios of petroleum hydrocarbons, such as carbon preference index, unresolved to resolved components, and carbon number with maximum concentration, suggest that PM2.5 carbon in Hong Kong originates from both biogenic and anthropogenic sources. The proportion of SEOC in PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources is estimated.     

Removal process estimation of population size for a population with a known sex ratio

A removal model for estimating population size which uses the known population sex ratio is studied. A maximum likelihood estimate and an optimal martingale estimate of the population size are proposed. Their standard errors and large sample properties are obtained. Simulation studies are reported, and the performance of the proposed estimators are compared with the standard maximum likelihood estimator which ignores the sex ratio information. An example on a capture study of deer mice is given.     

Assessment of prey vulnerability through analysis of wolf movements and kill sites.

Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.